The electronic document Physical Demography (2024), by Charles Dermer (224 pp, >100 figures, 28 animations), on the physics of populations and human mortality, explores the physical connection between cell death, human mortality and population evolution. Includes historical context, art and humor. MS WORD DOCUMENT ONLY. Purchase here.
CONTENTS: I. Telomeres and Death; II. Rate Spikes in Hungarian Population Data: Effects of Chernobyl? III. Presidential Mortality; IV. Population Projections for Ukraine; V. Covid-19; VI. US Mortality, Fertility and Migration; VII. Simulated US Futures; VIII. Life, Death and Immortality.
Detailed TABLE OF CONTENTS and Introductory Material:
pp. i – 14, 22 pages in total: MS WORD download (with links and animation). Title, Table of Contents, Abstract, Extended Summary, Prologue, Chapter 0: Introduction to Physical Demography
pp. i – 14, pdf below (with no links or animation; the animation is found below the pdf)
Dermer_Physical_Demography_pp1-22-1
The approach to cell senescence and cell death is normally regulated by telomere loss. The mean number of cell divisions is restricted by the Hayflick limit. I reformulate this biological process as a statistical physics problem, relate cell death to human death, and use evolving population data to derive mortality rates that are used to test the model.
It took 8 chapters and over 200 pages to unwind this problem. Challenges include: (i) deriving mortality rates from population data unaffected by migration; (ii) obtaining the inputs for a full demographic population model and fitting the age-stratified mortality rates and fertility function with simple functions; (iii) deriving the age-stratified entering migration arrival profile. I developed a full population code and use it to project US population evolution for the next 50 years.